Why the Florida Gators Will or Won't Make a March Madness Run

Their abilities as scorers (both on and off the ball), facilitators and ball handlers — not to mention the added contributions they make beyond the stat sheet on both ends of the floor — are critical to the Gators' success.

And if history is any indication, those skills directly translate to tournament success.

To make matters even better for Florida, the starting point guard and shooting guard are not the only ones who can produce from the backcourt.

Junior Will Richard has served as a vital asset in the starting lineup as a true 3-and-D piece throughout the year, showcasing the ability to catch fire from beyond the arc and produce winning plays that span beyond the stat sheet. Sophomore Riley Kugel, amid an up-and-down year, also has the skill set to elevate the Gators roster when he sees the floor. The recent emergence of sophomore Denzel Aberdeen — who posted a career-high 20 points to lead Florida's 18-point comeback win over Texas A&M in the SEC Tournament semifinal — also aids the unit in that area.

Simply put, Florida's guard corps is deep and talented. It could be the difference between a first-weekend exit and an unexpected move into the Sweet 16, just like it has for other teams in the past.

If the Gators get rolling past round one, under the right circumstances, stellar guard play makes anything possible.

Why Florida Won't Make a Run

Contrary to the aforementioned reasoning for Florida's ability to post several wins en route to an appearance in the second weekend of the tournament — or even beyond — the Gators have some glaring deficiencies that suggest the potential for an early exit.

The most often criticized aspect of UF's gameplay this season has been its free-throw shooting. Knocking down just 71.2% of shots from the line, the Gators dug a steep hole early in the campaign as they struggled to move above 70% at the line during an extended stretch of the out-of-conference schedule.

Even Clayton, who connected at a 95.3% mark a season ago at Iona, stumbled out of the gate from the line. Like Florida, he's cleaned up his performance throughout the year, finding the net on his last 33 free-throw attempts and 42 of his previous 43.

He finished the year shooting 87.6% from the stripe. 

The Gators rank No. 225 in free throw percentage on the season, and while the product has certainly improved as the year has rolled on, the spurts of inconsistency are still prevalent.

Notably, forward Tyrese Samuel suffered a setback to his improved form to begin SEC Tournament play against Georgia. He missed nine of his 23 attempts on the evening after going 9-of-9 in his previous outing. He shoots at a concerning 56.3% clip from the line on the season and has also shown the propensity to slump below that mark.

As the second-most often fouled Gator on the team, at least pertaining to attempts from the charity stripe this season, behind only Pullin, Samuel could leave critical points on the board in inopportune moments.

Other players have held their own when offered chances from the line, especially since the start of league play in January.

But, if Florida falls into a single-game lull as it did against Georgia in the second round of the SEC Tournament, it could plague the unit's effort to advance in a tightly contested matchup against a higher-caliber opponent.

In addition, Florida's dominant rebounding efforts early in the year have become few and far between. This aspect of tournament play can elevate a squad's ability to post wins against any opponent it faces.

While the Gators flashed that ability to begin the campaign, the product has been thwarted to some extent recently. Both matchups against Vanderbilt — albeit a drastically smaller opponent — stick out.

The recent lull becomes magnified following the loss of starting big man Micah Handlogten, who suffered a broken leg against the Auburn Tigers in the SEC Championship game. Statistically one of the nation's premier rebounds — specifically on the offensive end, ranked No. 4 in the country for individual offensive rebounding percentage per KenPom — the sophomore big man from Marshall provided a high-caliber glass-cleaning presence to aid UF in maximizing possessions with second and third chance points.

Although his scoring production wasn't stellar, he frequently played above the rim to tip in the ball falling off the surface of the rim and pulled down boards to kick out to the array of capable scoring available on the floor for the Gators at all times.

Now, Florida is tasked with replacing 6.9 rebounds per game while simultaneously remaining dominant in the area to maintain its edge over the opposition.

Doing so is much easier said than done, especially as the unit has already slipped there recently.

Final Thoughts

If Florida wins one, it'll win several.

The former section (Why Florida Will Make a Run) seems more likely when examining the two scenarios, considering the trajectory the Gators have been on since the end of the 2023-24 conference slate.

The loss to Vanderbilt to end the regular season has been flushed away following an uber-impressive run to the SEC title game. Despite the loss of Handlogten, Florida's frontcourt depth is equipped to pick up the slack after an injury this season, unlike last.

Handlogten's effectiveness on the boards will be sorely missed, but UF's offensive prowess with Samuel and Alex Condon commanding the floor together more consistently will grow as each forward has showcased the ability to score out of the pick-and-roll and with one-on-one paint touches.

Condon's presence on the defensive interior as a rim protector — he averages a team-high 1.2 blocks per game — also bodes well for Florida's contention with any opponent it faces. Pairing that with a backcourt rotation that has grown more dynamic in the last week with Aberdeen's emergence, the Gators continue to improve.

The ongoing development makes Florida a team to fear. The deeper the Gators go in the tournament, the more dangerous it becomes to advance.

The first bout with either Boise State or Colorado will be difficult, given the unit's propensity to play at the level of its opponents this season. However, if the Gators get past the first round, a date with Marquette is expected to be on the slate, barring an unexpected upset by Western Kentucky in round one. 

Florida matches up well with Marquette, despite the dominance of Golden Eagles guard Tyler Kolek, as both teams attempt to push the tempo and maximize the number of possessions to score early and often.

The Gators would hold a considerable advantage on the glass in that contest. 

It suggests the potential for a monumental upset of Shaka Smart's No. 2-seeded squad to move Florida into the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2016-17 — when they reached the Elite 8 in the second year of Mike White's tenure in Gainesville.

Will history repeat itself with the Gators again pushing toward a National Championship in Arizona, to cap off Golden's second year in command?